We have heard utterly interesting things during the gas hysteria. In the beginning we have found out that the Belarusian economy will collapse if we accept the Russian offer – the natural gas price of $105 for 1000 cubic meters. There you are, the famous Belarusian model. Lithuania and Poland buy gas for $230, Ukraine with its huge metallurgical plants pays $130. Still, here everything should collapse at $105.
“The blackmailing of Belarus continues. But if they go on like this, we will move to dugouts, but won’t surrender to the blackmail”, said the Belarusian president.
We have heard, that “From Belarus to Germany there are thousands of kilometers”. Or that “Europe was unable to compete with our goods”. We have also learned, that Belarusian ministers are being treated like lackeys in Moscow. But they are lackeys! This is the system as it is: one is the master, all the rest are lackeys. What are we complaining of? “I am ready to crawl to Moscow on my knees”, has been said to us some time ago. As a Russian proverb says, if you’ve given a word, you should stick to it…
It’s been two years since Belarus was cut off from the Russian gas the first time. What has been done? The consumption of gas has increased. The consumption of oil has increased. The Russian share in the energy balance of the country has increased. Not a single alternative route of importing energy supplies has been developed. Moreover, Belarus, like a maniac, spoiled relations with all the countries where these routs could have been laid. Belarus paid with its independence for the cheap gas.
“Despite of the pressure from the outside, Belarus will hold out”, has been said to us. That’s true. The Belarusian independence reached it’s point of no return in 1999.
The Lithuanian economy survives the price raise to $230, the Ukrainian – to $130. No one makes dugouts on the Gedymin hill in Vilnius, and no one is crawling into the union with Russia. It means, that $105 will not be a threat to the Belarusian independence either. Pumping up the hysteria is needed only for the one, who will claim protecting the Belarusian property and Belarusian economy as his own heroic deed. For the one, who pays our pensions. For the one, who provided us with gas. For the guarantor of the independence. For the one, owing to whom we remained to live in our panel houses. For the one, who saved us from returning into the dugouts.
But the patriotic chatter won’t influence the gas price at all. It’s all been decided already, the Belarusian delegation is in Moscow. A lackey will sign the agreement, and then he will accept all the blame for it, when the time comes.
In 2004 the country united around the president in the face of the first gas conflict. The president noted his irreplaceability as a guarantor of independence and organized a referendum which allowed him to rule infinitely. Now the times of economic hardships are approaching. Let’s support the president in his struggle for independence once more.